Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2 2020) The 13.2% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy in Q2 appears to have been followed by a only a weak rebound in July but, with policymakers finally starting to get a grip on the coronavirus, the recovery... 18th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s pension bill: the economic & market impact Reforms in Chile that allow households to withdraw some of their pension savings may help to boost the economic recovery over the next year. But the way in which the reform was passed adds to the... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile central bank delves into unconventional toolbox The decision by Chile’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% was accompanied by a statement which appeared to unveil a QE programme. The finer details will be fleshed out... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom set to cut further, Chile’s CB stays the course The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp cut in the Selic rate last night and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement has prompted us to pencil in a further 50bp of cuts (to 2.50%) in the coming months... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What more can Chile’s central bank do? With the Central Bank of Chile’s policy rate at its effective lower bound, we think that its next easing measure would be a quantitative easing programme aimed at flattening the long end of the yield... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, more easing in store Chile’s central bank suggested that, having cut its policy rate to 0.5% yesterday, rates will remain at this low level for an extended period of time. But given the scale of the economic hit from the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 3.0% y/y in December is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y over the first half of this year. That said, this period of above-target... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean fiscal policy: How worried should we be? Protests in Chile will probably result in a shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy. But it would take a long time for the debt ratio to become a concern, so any corresponding rise in bond... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Nov.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 2.7% y/y in November is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y early next year. That said, this increase will be temporary. As a result, we... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP picks up in Q3, Q4 likely to contract While GDP growth picked up in Q3, activity data for September indicates that the economy had already slowed significantly prior to the protests beginning. GDP is likely to contract in Q4. That said... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s protests: growing risk of longer disruption The sharp fall in the Chilean peso today amid widespread strikes will push up inflation although, with the central bank focused more on the hit to the economy, further interest rate cuts are still... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
