Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile: start of a long but gradual tightening cycle Chile’s central bank fired the starting gun on a gradual tightening cycle yesterday as it hiked its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75%. While it signalled that monetary policy will remain accommodative... 15th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at Chile’s virus and vaccine trends Chile’s renewed lockdown measures provide further evidence that its rapid vaccination programme has a lot further to run to quash the virus. The good news is that the economy seems resilient to... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru turmoil, Chile’s lockdown, hawks & doves Pedro Castillo’s victory in Peru’s presidential election caused local markets to tumble, but if his more moderate post-election comments are borne out in policymaking, asset prices are likely to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1 2021) The softer-than-expected 3.2% q/q rise in Chilean GDP in Q1 will probably be followed by a marked slowdown in Q2 caused by the lockdown at the start of the quarter. Nonetheless, high-frequency data... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three is not the magic number in Chile The third round of pension withdrawals in Chile will help to boost its economic recovery in the near term, but is unlikely to be as impactful as the previous two. The broader concern is that it... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: infections, vaccines and the recovery While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2020) The 6.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 shows the economy headed into 2021 with significant momentum. And the outlook is bright given the country’s swift vaccine progress. As a result, we are revising... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
