Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the... 19th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on... 2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response... 1st August 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q1 2024) The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
