Chief Economist's Note Israel's retaliatory strikes: Key analysis on the Middle East conflict Reports suggest that Israel has fired missiles into Iran in response to Iran’s strike on Israel last weekend. Details remain unclear, but the key questions for markets relate to the scale of the... 19th April 2024
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Iran’s strike: what next for Israel? The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% (rather than cut) for the second meeting in a row underscores policymakers’ concerns about the large budget deficit... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4 2023) The 19.4% q/q annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q4 was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. While a recovery looks... 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB to step up easing, inflation softens again in Israel In Hungary, dovish comments from the central bank (MNB) deputy governor this week and recent softer-than-expected inflation data have prompted us to pencil in a larger 100bp interest rate cut at the... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
