Latin America Economics Update Brazil rate cuts not as risky as most assume Although last night’s cut in Brazilian interest rates was well anticipated and fully priced into the market, the decision will add to widespread concerns that policymakers have fallen behind the curve... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has probably peaked Data released later this week are likely to show another pick-up in Brazilian inflation and will no doubt lead to fresh criticism of the decision to cut interest rates at August’s COPOM meeting. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil industry sliding into recession This afternoon’s PMI survey data from Brazil suggest that the industrial sector is sliding into recession. In this context, we believe that the recent decision by the central bank (BCB) to cut... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets take another pounding The Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.0% last night as the board weighed downside risks to growth against stubbornly high inflation. We believe that the BCU... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts back on the agenda for 2012 The rapid deterioration in the growth outlook for the developed world, and the deepening crisis in Europe in particular, should in time vindicate last month’s surprise (and controversial) decision by... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we make of the real’s fall from grace? Fears that the slump in the Brazilian real will lead to a further rise in inflation look greatly exaggerated. There is almost no relationship between fluctuations in the currency and inflation, while... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Heading into choppy waters The economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next year. We do not anticipate a prolonged downturn, but the marked deterioration in the external environment means... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q2 GDP data solid, Q3 looking dire Brazil’s economy grew by a solid if not spectacular 0.8% q/q in Q2, but leading indicators suggest that it will struggle to expand at half that pace in Q3. 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? After last night’s surprise 50bps cut in interest rates, further monetary easing in Brazil will depend on how events elsewhere in the global economy play out. We doubt that rates will be cut as... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Market rout focuses attention on risks to growth Financial markets in Latin America suffered heavy losses during the recent global market turmoil, extending their poor performance so far this year. Equity markets fell by around 15% amid a widespread... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: here comes the slowdown Brazilian growth appears to have eased a little in the second quarter of this year and, thanks to a weak end to Q2 and the recent turmoil in markets, looks set to slow yet further in Q3. The question... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold until 2013 The recent turmoil in the financial markets has re-shaped the debate on how far interest rates may need to rise in Latin America. We still expect one or two more hikes in Peru, Colombia and perhaps... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: attention back on the real The slump in Brazilian industrial production in June tips the balance in favour of interest rates being left unchanged (rather than hiked) later this month, and suggests that the tightening cycle has... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still feeling the squeeze A further drop in the PMI manufacturing survey last month suggests that the outlook for Brazilian industry has continued to weaken. Relentless appreciation of the real is squeezing the tradable sector... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rates close to peaking Policymakers in most of Latin America’s inflation-targeting countries have begun to signal an end to the current cycle of monetary tightening. In the very near term, we still expect the combination of... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
