Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest inflation rise tips balance in favour of Brazil rate hike Brazilian inflation breached the upper bound of its target range last month, tipping the balance in favour of a hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting. Nonetheless, it... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Various changes to regulated prices, coupled with general uncertainty over the path of food inflation, mean that it has become increasingly difficult to predict month-to-month changes in Brazilian... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing recovery slows The latest PMI surveys suggest that Latin America’s manufacturing recovery lost a little steam in the final month of Q1. At a country level, Mexico continues to outperform Brazil. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand offsets external weakness Growth in Latin America has continued to rebound in recent months. But while the economy is on course to expand by about 3% y/y in Q1, the pace of growth remains far below the 5-6% y/y rates that were... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso bucks EM sell-off Latin American assets and currencies have sold off over the past month as a weaker pace of emerging market growth and fears of an escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis have weighed on investor... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico rate cut likely to be a one-off Today’s cut in Mexican interest rates was a surprise, particularly in light of further evidence that the US economy is strengthening. We suspect that it was a one-off and do not think it marks the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil paves the way for policy tightening Brazil left interest rates unchanged last night but the accompanying statement suggested that without fresh evidence that inflation pressures are easing, policy will be tightened at the next month’s... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's recovery remains lacklustre Brazil’s recovery grinds on, but the pace of growth is still disappointingly sluggish. Unless or until investment becomes a bigger part of the economy, growth is likely to be lacklustre and inflation... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
