Latin America Economics Update No sign of a rebound in Latin America manufacturing in May May’s manufacturing surveys suggest that the Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing sectors both weakened further last month. But while Brazilian industry will probably continue to struggle over the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil ups the ante in fight against inflation Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps last night, sending out a strong message that it has not gone soft on inflation. Further hikes are possible in the months... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More needs to be done to rebalance Brazilian economy The strong performance of Brazilian investment in Q1 is promising, but it will have to be maintained for a sustained period in order to significantly ease the economy’s supply constraints and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil must save to invest The renewed focus of the Brazilian authorities on raising investment suggests a growing acceptance that the slump in growth over the past year or so has been driven in part by structural factors... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers starting to feel the strain The recent slump in retail sales in Brazil probably overstates the true weakness of consumer spending. Nonetheless, putting to one side the volatility of the monthly data, there are signs that Brazil... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further evidence of a faltering recovery The drop in the manufacturing PMI for April adds to evidence that Brazil’s recovery has faltered in recent months and is another reason to think that the current monetary policy tightening cycle will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mining stocks take a hit Latin American equities have mostly sold off over the past month, compounding an already weak start to the year. Hardest hit have been the large mining firms based in the Andes, many of whom appear to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tightening cycle to be smaller than most expect The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 25bps – as opposed to the 50bps that was priced into the market – suggests that the tightening cycle is likely to be less aggressive... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
