Latin America Economics Update PMIs add to evidence that Mexican industry will overtake Brazil September’s manufacturing PMIs provide further evidence that the decent start to the year for Brazilian industry was a false dawn. By contrast, Mexican industry appears to be finding its feet after a... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet after summer sell-off Latin American financial markets have bounced back in September, snapping a three-month losing streak. While the US Fed’s decision to delay tapering does little to change our fundamental view on the... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s widening CA deficit reflects broader economic malaise The improvement in Brazil’s current account in August was due entirely to seasonal factors and does not alter the bigger picture that the deficit has widened sharply since the start of the year... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing bubble revisited A warning from US economist Robert Shiller about the recent sharp rise in Brazilian house prices has revived fears of a property bubble in Latin America’s largest economy. Our position remains that... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery built on weak foundations Brazil’s beleaguered manufacturing sector came back from the dead to give the economy a muchneededboost in Q2. But hopes for a sustained recovery in industry this year are likely to bedisappointed. In... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian and Mexican industry trading places The latest manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil suggests that, having been responsible for stronger-than expected GDP growth in Q2, industrial production is likely to weaken again in the second half of... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil unlikely to sustain rapid GDP growth Strong second quarter GDP growth and further signs of rebalancing in the Brazilian economy are good news. But with consumption set to remain weak and domestic savings low, we continue to expect GDP... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to rise by less than market expects Brazil’s decision to hike interest rates by a further 50bp last night will have been bolstered by the extent of the recent slide in the real. But the rise in market rate expectations over the past... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil FX intervention plan looks big by EM standards The $60bn currency intervention programme announced by Brazil late last night represents one of the boldest attempts yet by an EM central bank to shore up its currency following the rout of recent... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the Brazilian bond market gone nuts? We doubt the recent significant underperformance of Brazil’s local currency government bonds will last. A surge in yields has been mainly driven by expectations of much more aggressive monetary... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
