Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish start to 2014 Latin American financial markets have had a soft start to 2014, with currencies continuing to fall against the US dollar, benchmark equities declining and the regional EMBI bond yields rising. Looking... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank signals slower pace of tightening The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 50bp to 10.5% was in line with our forecast but against the consensus, which had expected a smaller 25bp increase. As it happens, the... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico revving up to overtake Brazil The contrasting performances of the automotive sectors in Brazil and Mexico last year give an indication of the outlook for the region’s two largest economies. Booming vehicle sales in Mexico suggest... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor "Fragile five" trade balances improving EM export growth continued to gather pace in November and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run. There are signs that the trade balances of the “fragile five” EMs... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Brazil’s worsening fiscal position There are two aspects of the recent deterioration in Brazil's fiscal position that are especially worrying. First, it has occurred despite the fact that the economy is operating at full employment... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets resist “Taper Tantrum” Financial markets in Latin America have for the most part shrugged off the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases under QE3. Currencies have dipped a little following the decision, but the... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets to come under renewed pressure in 2014 Latin America's financial markets have stabilised during the past month, but are likely to come under pressure again in 2014 as global monetary conditions tighten and commodity prices fall. We expect... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth in 2014-15 After a golden decade during which annual GDP expanded by an average of more than 4%, Latin America is now entering a new era of weaker growth. We expect GDP growth to average 2.5-3.0% during 2014-15... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank dashes hopes that hiking cycle may be over The minutes to last month’s COPOM meeting, released this morning, will dash hopes that Brazilian policymakers might call a halt to interest rate hikes at their next meeting in January. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old habits die hard in Brazil Brazilian GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3, while the breakdown dashed hopes that the economy is rebalancing away from consumption and towards investment. With the economy reaching the limits... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
