Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazil inflation edged up again last month but, with the big increases in regulated prices now over, it is probably close to peaking. Meanwhile in Chile, inflation continues to grind lower and should... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil heads deeper into the fiscal mire It is, in truth, too soon to expect any improvement in Brazil’s public finances as a result of the belt-tightening measures introduced over the past few months, but the fact that the fiscal position... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) Brazil’s industrial sector contracted once again in March, meaning that output fell by around 2.3% in the first quarter of this year. Other sectors of the economy have fared slightly better in recent... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hike rates; all eyes now on the real Calling turning points is always tricky but, assuming that the real remains stable over the coming months, we think that last night’s 50bp increase in Brazilian interest rates to 13.25% could be the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A glimmer of hope for Brazil’s manufacturing sector Some of the structural constraints that have held back manufacturing in Brazil over the past decade now appear to have eased. So while we don’t expect an imminent turnaround in the sector, or an Asian... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Mar.) Changes to the methodology that Brazil uses to produce its balance of payments data have resulted in an even larger current account deficit. However, the impact on financial markets – and the currency... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big falls in the Brazilian real are probably behind us The Brazilian real has come under renewed pressure over the past couple of months as markets have responded to an ugly mix of a stagnant economy and a deepening political crisis that is threatening to... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The best that can be said about February’s industrial production data from Brazil is that the fall in output was not quite as large as some had feared. Production was affected by a strike in the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The better-than-expected 0.3% q/q increase in Brazilian GDP in Q4 will get the headlines, but an excessive reliance on over-stretched consumers to drive growth remains a concern. Meanwhile, revisions... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Feb.) February’s balance of payments data will do little to ease investor’s concerns about Brazil’s current account deficit. Although the 12-month rolling deficit narrowed a touch in dollar terms, it... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the jump in Brazilian inflation We estimate that all of the jump in inflation in Brazil over the past year can be explained by increases in government-regulated prices and a drought-related rise in food costs. Both of these effects... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis now biggest threat to Brazil’s economy The corruption scandal at state-owned oil company, Petrobras, has developed over the past week or so into a full-blown national political crisis that, in our view, is now the biggest headwind facing... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
