Latin America Rapid Response Brazil fuel price hikes to give further push to inflation 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Sep. – 16th Sep.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugar cane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was severely disrupted by rain in the first half of... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in a fiscal hole, but default fears overdone Brazil’s public finances are in a mess, but mounting fears of a sovereign default are overdone. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brazilian real hits 4/$, unlikely to snap back We think that the sell-off in the Brazilian real has been overdone to some degree. But whereas a decline to around 4/$ in 2003 was subsequently followed by a period of rapid appreciation, several... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Aug. – 1st Sep.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, revealed that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil’s main sugar producing South-Central region in the second half of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal mess goes from bad to worse The move by Brazil’s government to yet again lower its fiscal targets for 2016 means that its projections for the public finances are finally starting to look realistic. But at the same time, they... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s dire industrial production data from Brazil suggest that the economy has made a terrible start to Q3 and are an ominous first sign that the country’s recession will extend into the second half... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) Data to mid-August provide a glimmer of hope that the big month-on-month increases in consumer prices in Brazil are now behind us. In year-on-year terms, inflation should peak this month, but it will... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Further fall in Brazilian real could add to sugar’s woes Continued weakness in the Brazilian currency could undermine the price of sugar further. However, we think greater ethanol production and consumption in Brazil will provide some support to the price... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data from Brazil, while better than expected, are still consistent with GDP falling by the most since the depths of the global financial crisis in Q2. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates, tightening cycle probably over The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 14.25% was largely expected, but the move to signal the end of the tightening cycle in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit bubble deflating, consumers feel the squeeze A combination of increases in policy interest rates and curbs on lending by some public banks is taking some of the air out of Brazil’s credit bubble. So far it seems that the bubble is deflating... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation in the first half of this month means that another 50bp hike in the Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting is almost a certainty. But there are signs... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
