Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in January was encouraging, particularly given that it corroborates with other leading indicators which point to (very early) signs of stabilisation... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Today’s Brazilian inflation data, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 10.7% y/y in the first half of January, are likely to give policymakers at the central bank another reason to hold... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 12.4% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in November was even worse than October’s 11.1% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s recession deepened in Q4. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in December provides a rare piece of good news for a country in the grip of both a deep recession and an escalating political crisis. Elsewhere, Mexico... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing and credit bubbles: the next shoe to drop? Investors in Brazil are understandably focussed on the economic implications of the recent change in Finance Minister and the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff. But we think the way... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, in the first half of December was driven by an increase in food inflation that should ease by mid-2016. Nonetheless, the risk of... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.5% y/y, was driven in large part by a jump in food inflation. While this pick-up should be temporary, given that it... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian food inflation set to ease…but not just yet The various factors pushing up food inflation in Brazil should start to fade by Q2 2016 and, with the boost from this year’s regulated price hikes set to ease too, headline inflation is likely to... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: The economic consequences of impeachment As we anticipated, Brazilian markets have so far shrugged off last night’s news that impeachment proceedings will be launched against President Rousseff . As the dust settles, the biggest consequence... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 11.2% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in October was even worse than September’s 10.9% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s deep recession continued at the start of Q4... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The further fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in November, to a fresh five-year low of 43.8, adds to evidence that the economy is yet to bottom out. The data are broadly consistent with industrial... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) Third quarter GDP data from Brazil made for grim reading, with the economy contracting by a larger-than-expected 1.7% q/q and falls earlier in the year revised higher. As a result, it seems likely... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
