Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in March was encouraging, but it partly reflects payback for February’s huge 2.7% m/m fall. Moreover, the annual pace of contraction accelerated... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully Brazil’s COPOM left its benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 14.25% yesterday and, while the case for monetary easing is growing, the accompanying statement reinforced our view that interest... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in February suggests that the economy was on course to contract in Q1 even before the more recent escalation in the country’s political crisis. The... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMDB exit leaves Dilma on the brink According to widespread reports, Brazil’s largest political party, the PMDB, will later today announce that it plans to leave government – leaving President Rousseff closer to impeachment, and paving... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil interest rates? We expect the Central Bank of Brazil to shift its bias towards looser policy over the coming months, but both the timing and the size of any cuts in interest rates will be determined by what happens... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five things you wanted to know about Brazil (but were too afraid to ask) It’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep tabs on the deepening crisis in Brazil. How much of it is due to political problems? How much is economic? And what should investors watch for as events... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Brazilian inflation in February, to 10.4% y/y from 10.7% y/y in January, was driven entirely by the unwinding of the impact of regulated price hikes implemented in the same period last... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest rally in Brazilian equities another false dawn? Brazil’s economy is under the cosh, but the 30% rebound in the Bovespa since mid-January has made it one of the top performing equity markets in the emerging world. While we doubt that the stock... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How alarming is the latest collapse in Brazil’s PMI? The collapse in Brazil’s Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI in February has grabbed plenty of headlines but it’s notable that it has not been repeated in other (more reliable) business surveys... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The sharp drop in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI for February is particularly disappointing given that it follows a general improvement in the survey data for January, and has dealt a blow to hopes that... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month is concerning, given that January’s data had suggested the headline rate was close to peaking. We still expect inflation to drop back... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan.) Brazilian inflation held steady at 10.7% y/y in January and, while the headline rate may now have peaked, it is likely to remain well above the central bank’s target this year. Accordingly, we see... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
