Latin America Economics Update An anatomy of Brazil’s recession The depth of Brazil’s recession has been blamed on everything from lower global commodity prices and tightening domestic credit conditions to poor infrastructure and excessive red tape. But this... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 16) Data to mid-September provide the first signs that Brazilian food inflation – which has been a source of recent concern for the central bank – is starting to ease. But while that could put an interest... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico Food inflation should ease over the coming months in Brazil and Colombia, which will help to bring down the headline inflation rates in both countries. By contrast, in Mexico, we expect the lagged... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for Brazil? Brazil’s economy is bottoming out and, while the recovery will be slow going, our 2017 GDP forecast is a bit above consensus. Inflation should ease and, although COPOM will move gradually in the first... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s inflation data are not going to provide any reassurance to Brazilian policymakers that now is the time to begin lowering interest rates. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-month high... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems There is little doubt that the finances of Brazil’s State governments are in dire straits, but there is some confusion as to how this relates to the wider fiscal position. The key point is that the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in August is disappointing, particularly coming on the back of consecutive increases in the previous two months. However, the decline was relatively modest and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The bigger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Brazil Q2 GDP was caused by another large fall in consumer spending. An improvement in investment should ensure that the economy returns to growth over the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms The vote by Brazil’s Senate to formally remove President Rousseff from office was a foregone conclusion and is unlikely to have a major impact on markets. Attention will now shift to the passage of... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) - 16 Brazil’s mid-month inflation data have tended to overestimate inflation over the full month recently but even so the latest rise, from 8.9% y/y to 9.0% y/y in mid-August, is likely to cause some alarm... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere The further narrowing of Brazil’s current account deficit in June has significantly reduced the vulnerability of the country’s financial markets to external shocks. Elsewhere, however, there is still... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains Given the extent of its rally over the past couple of months it’s difficult to make the case that the Brazilian real will now strengthen much further from here. But by the same token, we think there... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The strong increase in Brazilian industrial production in June was encouraging and, coming on the back of rises in output in both April and May, it looks like the sector added to q/q GDP growth for... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3 The sharp rise in the aggregate EM PMI in July suggests that after a brief pause in Q2, the recovery in EM industry resumed at the start of the third quarter. The improvement was driven largely by... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
