Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October provides an early sign that, following the slump in Q3, a strong rebound in output in Q4 is unlikely. 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Mexico’s manufacturing PMI fell in November following the election of Donald Trump but the decline was very modest and doesn’t point to a renewed downturn in production over the coming months... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) About 0.3%-pts of the 0.8%-pt contraction in Brazil GDP in Q3 can be chalked down to one-off effects stemming from a poor harvest and temporary disruptions to vehicle production. But the big story... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in October is likely to be followed up by further declines over the coming months. Accordingly, barring a sustained drop in the real – the currency is down by 2.5... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) & Manuf. PMI (Oct.) The 0.5% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in September only partly reversed the steep fall in August and means that the sector still contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q3 as a whole. The... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest data deal a blow to Brazil’s recovery A combination of shutdowns at several large auto plants and a drought-related drop in agricultural exports has set back the recovery in Brazil’s economy. Both headwinds should prove temporary, but our... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) Data to mid-October show that inflation in Brazil is continuing to ease, which should provide room for another cut in interest rates at November’s COPOM meeting. 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now The decision by Brazil’s COPOM to cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by only 25bp (rather than 50bp), combined with a slightly less dovish accompanying statement than some had expected, reinforces... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in September should be enough to seal the deal on an interest rate cut at this month’s COPOM meeting. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.8% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in August isn’t quite as bad as it seems at first sight. Around two-thirds of the fall was due to a drop in vehicle output, which was affected by a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
