Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI to a seven-month low in January is disappointing. But with more reliable surveys, as well as the hard data, showing an improvement, we don’t think it signals a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The larger-than-expected 2.3% m/m surge in Brazilian industrial production in December was due almost entirely to an increase in vehicle production, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: private sector deleveraging has further to run Private sector debt deleveraging in Brazil gathered pace over the second half of last year. But while credit conditions will remain extremely tight this year, there are at least signs that broader... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Data to mid-January showed another larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation and, barring a sustained slide in the real, we think COPOM is likely to cut the Selic interest rate by another 75bp... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017 Market expectations have moved steadily towards our more dovish view on the outlook for inflation and interest rates in Brazil this year. But our forecast for growth in 2017 is still above the... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Whither the real? The key driver of the Brazilian real over the past couple of years has been fluctuations in the price of the country’s commodity exports. Accordingly, our view that the price of Brazil’s main... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates Fuel inflation is set to spike in Latin America over the next few months. In most countries, this will be more than offset by the disinflationary forces caused by the stabilisation of exchange rates... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.2% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in November was due in large part to a rebound in vehicle production. This suggests that the lingering effects of a parts dispute with... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft end to 2016 Latin America’s economy has ended 2016 on a relatively downbeat note. The news from Brazil has gone from bad to worse, with both industrial production and retail sales falling in the most recent... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in November, coming on the back of less hawkish communications from policymakers in recent weeks, make it more likely that COPOM will step up... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
