Latin America Economics Update March survey data strike more positive tone in Brazil and Mexico The latest batch of survey data suggests that Brazil’s economy continued to recover in March, while in Mexico the recent slump in the IMEF business surveys is starting to reverse. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February was smaller than expected but still leaves the sector on course to make a positive contribution to GDP over Q1 as a whole. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) Data to mid-March showed another dip in Brazilian inflation and probably give enough cover for policymakers to accelerate interest rate cuts at next month’s Copom meeting. In practice, however, any... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Meat scandal could be the latest threat to Brazil’s recovery It’s too soon to say exactly how events will play out, but at face value the developing scandal over Brazil’s meat exports could plausibly derail the country’s economic recovery. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will unemployment in Brazil stabilise? The various forecasts circulating of the GDP growth rate needed to stabilize unemployment in Brazil tend to miss the important point that productivity growth is typically faster in the early stages of... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian headline inflation in February, to 4.8% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in January, was broad-based and reinforces the case for further significant monetary easing over... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) & Chile CPI (Feb.) The small 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in January is partly payback for a 2.3% m/m surge in December, and we think the recovery should resume over the coming months. Elsewhere, the... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The 0.9% q/q fall in GDP in Q4 is the eighth consecutive quarter that Brazil’s economy has contracted but it should also be the last in this cycle. Indeed, not only do we expect the economy to return... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest business surveys The deterioration in Mexico’s IMEF survey since the start of this year looks alarming but there are reasons to believe that it is overstating the softness in the real economy. Meanwhile, the incoming... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil Inflation in Brazil has fallen more quickly than even we had anticipated and, as such, we have pencilled in additional cuts to interest rates this year. We now expect the Selic to fall to 9.00% by end... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to continue falling sharply The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic interest rate by 75bp to 12.25% maintained an explicit easing bias but gave little away in terms of the future pace of... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Data to mid-February showed another big drop in Brazilian inflation which, coming alongside the recent strength of the real, paves the way for a large reduction in the Selic interest rate at tonight’s... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist While Brazil’s government is talking a good game on trade, the reality remains that the economy is among the most closed in the world. This is due in large part to structural problems that previous... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read