Latin America Economics Update What would happen if Brazil fails to pass pension reform? If Brazil’s pension reforms were to collapse, the immediate impact on the economy would be determined by the knock-on effects to broader financial conditions. Over the longer term, we estimate that a... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a fresh decade low of 3.6% y/y in May paves the way for further, albeit smaller, cuts in the Selic interest rate in the coming quarters. Despite the ongoing... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s electoral court ruling: a primer Brazil’s electoral court has reconvened this week to rule on whether illegal campaign donations made during the 2014 presidential election invalidate the Rousseff-Temer ticket. In this Update, we... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production was better than expected, but only partly reverses the steep drop recorded in March. As things stand, it is difficult to envisage the sector... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The 1.0% q/q rise in first quarter GDP means that, after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters, Brazil has finally exited recession. While our GDP forecast for this year is still above... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: no signs (yet) of major tightening in financial conditions It’s still too soon to say how Brazil’s latest political drama will play out, but the key point for the economy is that the crisis has not yet caused a sharp tightening in financial conditions. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: corruption allegations deal fresh blow to reform agenda Allegations that Brazilian president Michel Temer endorsed bribes to buy the silence of former house speaker, Eduardo Cunha, has dealt a fresh blow to the government’s reform agenda. The real and bond... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a decade-low of 4.1% y/y in April paves the way for another 100bp cut in the Selic rate (to 10.25%) at the next COPOM meeting on 31 st May. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico survey data continue to diverge April’s survey data point to a continued improvement in Brazil’s economy at the start of Q2, while in Mexico they suggest conditions have deteriorated further. But with provisional Q1 GDP data for... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production data from Brazil were ugly, but according to our estimates the sector still made a positive contribution to GDP growth over Q1 as a whole. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: lower structural interest rate depends on fiscal reform There is now broad agreement in financial markets that interest rates in Brazil will fall into single digits this year, but keeping them there will require the “neutral” or “structural” level of... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) Data to mid-April showed that Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years. We expect it to fall further over the coming months, before... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: export-driven recovery looking good…for now Brazilian export growth looks set to rebound this year as the impact of last year’s drought on agricultural shipments fades. This should help to finally pull the economy out of recession. That being... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest drop in Brazilian inflation leaves it only a whisker above the BCB’s central target and probably seals the deal on a larger 100bp cut in interest rates at next week’s Copom meeting. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Politics still the biggest threat to Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s beleaguered government will have to fight major challenges on at least three fronts over the coming months. As things stand, there appears to be a way forward for the government on each of... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
