Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) Data to mid-August suggest that inflation in Brazil is starting to bottom out. That being said, it’s likely to remain well below the central bank’s target over the remainder of this year. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation fell to a fresh decade-low in July but is now close to bottoming out. As such, while it’s a close call, our base case remains that Copom will cut interest rates by 75bps (rather... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The fact that Brazilian industry stagnated in month-on-month terms in June is partly payback for strong outturns in April and May. What’s more, industry still expanded by 0.5% q/q in the second... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and the rising populist threat It’s still too soon to say how next year’s presidential elections in Brazil will pan out, but it’s not impossible to see how voters might return an economic populist to the Planalto. If so, there are... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Second half of the year bodes well for coffee Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue? We expect EM equities to rise this year and next, but not at anything like the pace that they have done so far in 2017. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has returned around 20% so far this year... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging down our inflation & interest rate forecasts for Brazil Around half of the drop in Brazilian inflation over the past year has been driven by a collapse in food inflation, which is now close to bottoming out. But there is also growing evidence that the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico, Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexican inflation rose further above target in June, but there are signs in the breakdown that it is close to peaking. Meanwhile, data also released today showed that inflation in both Brazil and... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected 0.8% m/m gain in Brazilian industrial production in May, coupled with large upward revisions to April’s data, suggests that the sector may have made a modest positive... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Brazil’s new inflation target The decision to lower Brazil’s inflation target from 4.5% currently to 4.25% in 2019 and 4.00% in 2020 is clearly a step in the right direction, but it’s worth bearing in mind that inflation targets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in the first half of June to a fresh decade-low of 3.5% y/y, is Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
