Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More fiscal worries in Brazil, the regional re-opening Worries about a worsening of Brazil’s fiscal position in the run-up to next year’s general elections have continued to build, and we think there may now be a fiscal risk premium of about 50bp embedded... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation risks growing Inflation is at, or close to, multi-year highs across Latin America which has prompted a slew of interest rate hikes across the region. We think that central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru... 19th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation to 9.0% y/y in July will add to the central bank’s concerns over the inflation outlook. We think that its aggressive tightening cycle has much further... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in June suggests that industry made a negative contribution to q/q GDP growth over Q2 as a whole. But with virus cases having fallen sharply, it looks... 3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 looking brighter While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid... 27th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2021) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.6% y/y in the middle of July means that the headline rate is overshooting the central bank’s latest projections. That’s likely to tip the balance on Copom towards... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
