Latin America Economics Update Does Brazil’s inverted yield curve point to a recession? Brazil’s inverted yield curve has raised concerns that the economy may be on the brink of a recession, but it doesn’t have a particularly good track record as a leading indicator for economic... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in September suggests that the sector knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth over Q3 as a whole. The latest surveys suggest that October’s figures... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the latest surveys The latest survey data suggest that GDP growth held up relatively well in Brazil and picked up slightly in Mexico in Q4. In the meantime, Chile’s red-hot recovery is continuing which will keep the... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB in a tight spot, bailout for Pemex? Brazil’s central bank is in a quandary. The market fallout after this week’s 150bp rate hike suggests investors didn’t think it went far enough to quash concerns about fiscal risks and rising... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: fiscal risks to push Selic rate into double digits The Brazilian central bank’s decision to up the pace of tightening to a 150bp rate hike (which took the Selic rate to 7.75%) was a clear response to concerns about a looser fiscal stance. With fiscal... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2021) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation in the middle of October, to 10.3% y/y, alongside the latest rise in inflation expectations mean that Copom is likely to step up the pace of... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, Brazil fiscal worries mounting This week marked the two-year anniversary of the mass protests in Chile which caused a political risk premium to emerge in local financial markets and the currency, and we think that lingering... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The fiscal risk of rising rates, Mercosur tariff cuts Central banks were once again in the spotlight this week after the supersized 125bp rate hike in Chile, but one issue that is often overlooked is the damaging impact of rising interest rates on public... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
