Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The surprise 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October and weakness in the surveys for last month provide early evidence that the contraction in the economy last quarter may be... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2021) The 0.1% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q3 confirmed that problems in the agricultural and industrial sectors tipped the economy into a technical recession. And with financial conditions tightening, the... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2021) The Brazilian inflation reading of 10.7% y/y in mid-November (the same as the October full month figure) provides the first sign that inflation is now stabilising. But with the headline rate still far... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean external imbalances, Peronists humbled While much of the focus in Chile has centred on Sunday's general election, one story which may have flown under the radar is that external vulnerabilities are building. Data this week showed that the... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at fiscal positions in Latin America Fiscal balances have generally improved across Latin America this year (barring Chile and Colombia) but we think that governments in most major economies will struggle to implement the substantial... 17th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The larger-than-expected jump in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, last month, coming alongside a rise in inflation expectations and continued fiscal risks, increases the likelihood that Copom ups... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Brazilian assets will rebound any time soon While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
