Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule, shifting monetary policy tide? The new fiscal framework presented to congress by Brazil’s government this week would, if implemented in full, go a long way towards stabilising Brazil's public finances. But there are several hurdles... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina-IMF trouble ahead, Andean central banks A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. Meanwhile, the latest messaging from... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Global turmoil hits Lat Am when it’s already down Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for... 22nd March 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update “Malbec dollar” won’t save Argentina from devaluation A preferential rate to facilitate wine exports is the latest addition to Argentina’s myriad exchange rates, but it doesn’t address the fundamental problem that the peso is overvalued. We estimate that... 15th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico hawks Argentina is closing in on the next disbursement of IMF funding but, while the economy met many of last year’s performance criteria, the deal is likely to become rockier this year. Elsewhere, the... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Common currency, new FX forecasts, Bolivia’s lithium Argentina and Brazil’s plan to establish a common unit of account to increase bilateral trade and reduce their dependence on the dollar misdiagnoses the main impediments to both goals. Elsewhere... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hot labour market, Argentine bonds Expectations for inflation and interest rates in Brazil have shifted up on the back of Lula’s fiscal plans, but an equally (if not more) concerning development on this front is the surge in wage... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, hope in Argentina, fear in Brazil The new process to re-write Chile's the constitution will probably lead to a more slim-lined charter, but there are still likely to be major economic implications – notably, higher government spending... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico debate, Lula tacks back, Argentina’s struggles The further rise in core inflation in the first half of November suggests that the debate at Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) over when to end the tightening cycle is set to heat up. The risks are... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
