Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: más Massa?

The strong showing for Peronist candidate and current Economy Minister Sergio Massa in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina means that the run-up to the second round vote in November is likely...

23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina and Ecuador’s elections, Venezuela sanctions

Argentina's dire economic situation will be top of many voters’ minds when they head to the polls on Sunday, but the election will also have important geopolitical implications. An opposition victory...

20th October 2023 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher

Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s...

17th October 2023 · 4 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip...

28th September 2023 · 1 min read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end

Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover...

21st September 2023 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation?

Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting...

15th September 2023 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit

The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market...

1st September 2023 · 8 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Is political risk rising? From military uprisings to election upsets

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Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability.

Latin America Economics Focus

Dollarisation not a silver bullet for Argentina

History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this...

30th August 2023 · 12 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2023)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but...

23rd August 2023 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Debt risks: Frontiers not out of the woods

Market concerns about sovereign debt risks across frontier markets have eased a touch in recent months. For our part, while we think that Egypt and Nigeria should be able to avoid default, Kenya faces...

23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes

Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor...

18th August 2023 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What happens after EM currency crises?

Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the...

15th August 2023 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Argentina Devaluation and Interest Rate Hike

The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching...

14th August 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer

The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock...

14th August 2023 · 3 mins read