Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update YPF just another scapegoat for failures of Argentine model Rumours that Argentina’s largest energy company, YPF, is on the brink of being nationalised have seen the company’s share price plummet and sovereign risk premia spike over the past few days. Not only... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets pause for breath The rebound in financial markets across Latin America since the start of the year has lost some momentum in recent weeks. Having rallied by 10% or so in the first two months of this year, most of the... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine Q4 slowdown is a sign of things to come Official GDP data continue to overstate the health of Argentina’s economy and we estimate that growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4. The current economic model is reaching its limits, and with little... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print money The latest changes to Argentina’s Central Bank Charter will pave the way for further monetisation of a deteriorating fiscal balance. As such, any remaining hopes that the Fernández government is about... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s “currency war”? Brazil’s so-called “currency war” has lost a little of its momentum in recent days, as the real – like most EM currencies – has weakened. This provides an ideal opportunity to take stock of the recent... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s growth model under the spotlight News that Brazil last year overtook the UK to become the world’s sixth largest economy is further evidence, if any was needed, of the continued rebalancing of global economic power towards the... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Bumps in the road The immediate outlook for Latin America has brightened in recent months as fears of a renewed crisis in the developed world have eased. But even so, while the region is likely to outperform most... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Capital inflows threaten to destabilise Latin America Large capital inflows to Latin America have resumed in recent months. If we are right in expecting the euro-zone crisis to worsen later this year, then risk appetite is likely to deteriorate and lead... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s suspect data puts spotlight back on ‘Kirchnerismo’ Recent headlines questioning the validity of Argentina’s official data tell us little we don’t already know. Nevertheless, the fact remains that government manipulation is widening distortions in the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy looks to have come off the boil in Q4 Evidence of a deceleration of economic growth in Q4 2011 may signal the start of a more protracted slowdown in Argentina. Without a concerted near-term tightening of policy, it seems unlikely that a... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How exposed are equity markets to investor risk aversion? Whereas all of Latin America’s equity markets would be hit by a renewed bout of investor risk aversion, some appear to be more vulnerable than others. Specifically, Brazilian, Argentine and Mexican... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
