Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Oct.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator points to a slight improvement in Argentine growth over the past month or so. Even so, we think that GDP probably contracted by around 1.5% y/y in Q3... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Stimulus starting to take hold in Brazil There are signs that policy stimulus is starting to take hold in Brazil. Retail sales are growing, car sales hit a record high in August and even output in the beleaguered industrial sector has... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Soybeans paper over cracks in Argentina’s growth model The rise in soybean prices since early June will limit any further downside to Argentine growth but is unlikely to set the economy up for the rapid rebound that many are predicting. In the absence of... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recession bites as Argentina's 'model' begins to unravel The economic outlook for Argentina just keeps getting worse. Not only do we think that the country fell into a recession in Q2 but, judging by the extent of the recent slowdown, it now appears... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recession bites as Argentina's 'model' begins to unravel The economic outlook for Argentina just keeps getting worse. Not only do we think that the country fell into a recession in Q2 but, judging by the extent of the recent slowdown, it now appears... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Argentina’s central bank Judging by the latest data, Argentina’s new Central Bank Charter has cemented the BCRA’s role as a state-financing vehicle. With the economy on the brink of recession, we suspect that the government... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: drifting towards a two-tier peso? Argentina’s tightly managed exchange rate is not compatible with the expansive macro policies that have driven inflation up to double-digit levels. Nonetheless, the authorities seem determined to have... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy shudders to a halt in Q1 The latest data show that the health of Argentina’s economy has gone from bad to worse in recent months. While the official statistics are largely discredited, we estimate that GDP contracted in Q1... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
