Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela’s economic crisis deepens Venezuela’s government has responded to the eruption of violent protests in the country over the past month with yet another overhaul of its exchange rate system – the aim being to provide more... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Calm returns to Lat. Am. markets Following the turmoil experienced during the first few weeks of this year, financial markets across much of Latin America have stabilised over the past month. In most countries, bond yields have... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb 14.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No evidence that weaker currencies are fuelling higher inflation Inflation was lower-than-expected across much of Latin America last month, which may help to dampen fears that weak currencies will fuel higher inflation. Despite this, another 50bp interest rate hike... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next for the Argentine peso? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish start to 2014 Latin American financial markets have had a soft start to 2014, with currencies continuing to fall against the US dollar, benchmark equities declining and the regional EMBI bond yields rising. Looking... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets resist “Taper Tantrum” Financial markets in Latin America have for the most part shrugged off the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases under QE3. Currencies have dipped a little following the decision, but the... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets to come under renewed pressure in 2014 Latin America's financial markets have stabilised during the past month, but are likely to come under pressure again in 2014 as global monetary conditions tighten and commodity prices fall. We expect... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth in 2014-15 After a golden decade during which annual GDP expanded by an average of more than 4%, Latin America is now entering a new era of weaker growth. We expect GDP growth to average 2.5-3.0% during 2014-15... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read