Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy slumps following default Capital outflows following the Argentine government’s default probably contributed to the slump in economic activity in August, leaving the economy on course to contract by 1-2% this year. Unless the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resignation of BCRA Governor opens door to more unorthodoxy The resignation of the Governor of the Argentine central bank (BCRA) opens the door for even more unorthodox economic policy. With no end in sight to the government’s debt dispute, and policymaking... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets suffer more than most in latest EM sell-off Markets in Latin America have been hit particularly hard in the latest EM sell-off. A combination of factors has been responsible, including falling commodity prices and a renewed focus on the likely... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Problems mounting for weak Argentine economy The Argentine economy was extremely weak in the second quarter and, with the government since defaulting on its debt, it seems that the situation will only get worse in the second half of this year... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine government has introduced various measures in recent weeks to increase the availability of foreign currency in a bid to stem the depreciation of the peso in both official and unofficial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Mexico turning the corner The past month has brought signs that Mexico’s economy is finally turning the corner. latestdata suggest that the Mexican economy has turned the corner. GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs of contagion from Argentine debt saga The ongoing Argentine debt dispute continues to disrupt local markets, but so far there has been no contagion to the rest of the region. Equities have performed well so far in August, while it has... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Economic damage of Argentine default growing With hopes of a swift resolution to the Argentine debt dispute fading, capital flight appears to be picking up. As a result, the damage to the real economy is likely to be greater than we had... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine bond swap dashes hopes of a quick end to debt dispute The Argentine government’s plan to swap exchange bonds into local law, if successful, may enable the authorities to exit the current default and limit any damage to the real economy from the debt... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Stimulus may backfire as bank deal falls through Negative comments from holdout creditors suggest that a solution to the Argentine debt dispute involving private banks has fallen through. That, along with interest rate cuts and monetisation of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A fork in the road Data on vehicle production released over the past month suggest contrasting fortunes for Latin America’s two largest economies. While Mexico seems to be turning a corner and growth over the second... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
