Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do

The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said...

23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places

The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of...

10th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Set for a slow recovery

Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength

Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest...

22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts

The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving...

15th March 2024 · 10 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will...

13th March 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Frontier sovereign debt distress still high

While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a...

7th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts

Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex

Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural...

19th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising

Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead

The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30

President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But...

5th January 2024 · 8 mins read