Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Scioli scrapes victory, but ‘Macrinomics’ now possible A much narrower-than-expected victory for Daniel Scioli in Argentina’s general election means that outgoing president Cristina Kirchner’s chosen successor will face a tricky second-round run-off on... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s primaries put Scioli in the driving seat With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary elections now counted, it appears that Daniel Scioli, of the ruling left-wing Front for Victory coalition, is on course to win the Presidential elections... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers still up to their old tricks Argentina’s statistics office reported that GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q1, but independent data suggestthat although conditions have improved, there has not yet been a return to growth. And worryingly... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: runners and riders in the race to replace Cristina With Cristina Kirchner constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term as president of Argentina in October’s elections, hopes of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets in Brazil and Colombia suffer fresh falls Following a brief recovery last month, Brazilian and Colombian financial markets have sold off in recent weeks, with both equities and currencies coming under pressure. But elsewhere in Latin America... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Apr.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that conditions in the economy have stabilised following sharp falls in output last year, but the best we can say is that GDP is stagnating – there is... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Griesa deals another blow to Argentina Judge Griesa’s ruling that Citibank cannot process interest payments on Argentine government bonds that were issued under local law has dealt another blow to the authorities’ bid to return to... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
