Latin America Economics Update Argentina: progress on reform slows ahead of legislative elections President Macri has made solid progress in tackling Argentina’s economic vulnerabilities over the past eighteen months but reform momentum more recently has slowed. With legislative elections... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: provincial spending cap positive, but hurdles remain The proposed spending cap on Argentina’s provincial governments is a positive step and could in theory narrow the overall public sector budget deficit by almost 1% of GDP by 2019. However, it’s not... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Macri fix Argentina’s fiscal mess? With legislative elections due in October, progress in narrowing Argentina’s bulging budget deficit will be slow this year and we expect only a modest fiscal squeeze in 2018-19. More fundamentally... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained The recent strength of the Argentine peso, which has been the best-performing currency in Latin America so far this month, has led some to suggest that the worst is over for the currency. However, the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina to return to growth next year The relatively shallow 0.2% q/q contraction in Argentine GDP in Q3 supports our view that the recession is close to an end. We think the economy will return to positive growth in 2017, but the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft end to 2016 Latin America’s economy has ended 2016 on a relatively downbeat note. The news from Brazil has gone from bad to worse, with both industrial production and retail sales falling in the most recent... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
