Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? The lesson from EMs that have been forced to turn to the IMF for financial support in the past is that Argentina will need a combination of front-loaded fiscal tightening, reforms at the central bank... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: lessons from 2001/02 There are some similarities between Argentina’s current crisis and 2001/02 crisis. But there are also critical differences, not least the fact that the peso is now free-floating and the authorities... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update IMF or not – Argentina to fall into recession this year The news that Argentina has started talks with the IMF over a full-blown bailout has masked the fact that – deal or no deal – the economy is likely to fall into recession this year. We now expect GDP... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina and the IMF: what happens next? The announcement yesterday that Argentina will seek an IMF deal has brought some relief to the peso, but it’s far from guaranteed that an agreement will be reached. More generally, talk of an IMF deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA rate hike may finally provide a floor for the peso Today’s 675bp interest rate hike by the Argentine central bank, the third emergency hike in a week, finally seems to have brought some support to the currency. Evidence from other EM central banks... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal squeeze & drought to weigh on growth Recently-released Q4 GDP data confirms that economic growth in Argentina softened at the end of last year, and we expect the economy to slow further over the course of 2018 as tighter fiscal policy... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
