Latin America Economics Update Argentina: CFK shakes up the election The decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president in October’s election (with a more moderate Peronist at the top of the ticket) has... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: revisiting sovereign debt risks The growing possibility of a lurch to the left in Argentina’s presidential election in October has rekindled sovereign default fears. While the government’s FX debt repayment schedule in the immediate... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: market sell-off intensifies election risks The broad-based sell-off in Argentine assets over the past week or so, triggered by growing political risks, has resulted in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which will weigh on economic... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rout in Argentine markets to trigger policy response Argentine policymakers are likely to have been spooked by the rout in local markets in recent days, and the experience of the past few weeks suggests that they will be tempted to respond with more... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers beginning to panic The decision by Argentina’s central bank to limit the extent to which the nominal exchange rate will be allowed to weaken this year raises the risk that the peso becomes overvalued. Meanwhile, the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Argentina This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA tightening a double-edged sword for the ARS The Argentine central bank’s pledges to keep monetary policy tighter for longer have helped to stave off a run on the currency in recent weeks. But by keeping the economy weak ahead of October’s... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: more to net trade boost than weaker peso GDP data released last night confirmed that Argentina entered a technical recession in Q3 and, while net trade provided a positive contribution to growth, we don’t think that this can be pinned solely... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso’s vulnerabilities back in the spotlight A range of factors, including a fall in soybean prices, expectations of central bank intervention and political risk, appears to best explain the recent drop in the Argentine peso against the dollar... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine austerity drive a first step on long road ahead Having already hit the IMF’s primary deficit target for this year, Argentine policymakers have made impressive progress on fiscal tightening. But the squeeze so far accounts for only a third of the... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker currency helping Turkey more than Argentina A rise in inflation and higher interest rates mean Turkey and Argentina are likely to experience deep recessions over the next couple of quarters. However, whereas the fall in the lira should help to... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
