Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s NT outlook not as dire as many think Argentina’s GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% q/q in Q1 and, while the recent third virus wave has dragged down activity in Q2, we are sticking with our above-consensus forecast of 8%... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina & the IMF: 22nd time lucky? We suspect that Argentina’s government and the IMF will thrash out a new deal, the 22 nd in their history, but we doubt that this will lead to the sustained turnaround in policymaking that is needed... 7th April 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: restructuring deal may not be enough The recent progress in talks between Argentina’s government and bondholders suggests that a debt restructuring deal is increasingly likely. However, we are sceptical of the IMF’s view that the... 4th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s D-day & what it means for restructuring Barring an eleventh hour deal out of the blue, Argentina’s ninth sovereign default will be confirmed on Friday and, while this event is unlikely to surprise many in the markets, it will up the ante on... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 One major difference between Argentina’s current crisis and the historic 2001/02 episode is that the hit to private sector balance sheets should be smaller. So even though the coronavirus will cause a... 11th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five Q&As on Argentina’s restructuring proposal The Argentine government’s aggressive proposal to restructure its international bonds entails over $40bn in debt relief, which would go some way to restoring public debt sustainability. However, there... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Coronavirus deepens Argentina’s debt crisis The effects of the coronavirus will push Argentina’s economy into an even deeper recession and make the government more tempted to unilaterally halt payments on its international bonds. While we think... 7th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: what to make of the IMF’s latest review The IMF’s (belated) announcement that Argentina’s public debt is “unsustainable” removes any doubt that private bondholders will need to stomach large haircuts in a restructuring. But investors are... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a closer look at debt restructuring President-elect Alberto Fernández’s plan to resolve Argentina’s debt crisis by growing the economy is not a realistic option. We think that a large debt write-down within a few years is inevitable... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
