Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (November 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Currencies across Latin American have held up relatively well in the wake of the...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Latin America’s debt risks revisited

A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes

One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: default risks have eased, but not gone away

Investor sentiment towards Argentina has improved significantly in the past few months and it now looks like the government will probably be able to make the sovereign debt repayments that are due...

28th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates

A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (September 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth across Latin America is likely to be weaker than most expect in the next...

25th September 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation

Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus...

19th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read