US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show labour market conditions still tight The latest JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions remain quite tight and a lot more adjustment is needed to ensure that the drop back in price inflation to 2% will be sustained. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) A second consecutive increase in home purchase applications in December suggests that declining mortgage rates have allowed buyer demand to bottom out. Indeed, as we expect mortgage rates to continue... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Post-Christmas catch-up: The global state of play Developments of the past two weeks reinforce the message that the world economy is headed for recession and disinflation in 2023. With the full effects of policy tightening yet to be felt, and re... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week owing to a rebound in net imports, which was largely the result of the reopening of the Keystone pipeline. More interesting was the jump in implied product... 29th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2023: recession, disinflation… and debt ceiling crisis? This week brought further signs of slowing activity growth and falling inflation, trends we expect to intensify next year. Meanwhile, Congress has averted a government shutdown, but there appears to... 23rd December 2022 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
