US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How a mild recession might affect S&P 500 sector performance We doubt the recent renewed outperformance of the “big-tech” sectors of the US stock market will continue in the coming months given the prospect of a mild recession, even if TIPS yields fall again. 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, despite a rise in inputs to refineries. That said, refinery activity is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming weeks given ongoing maintenance and... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession or economic resurgence? The unexpected surge in payroll employment in January has led to claims of an economic resurgence that will force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates but, on balance, we still think the real economy... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch What to make of the latest forward guidance Now that inflation has passed its peak and many central banks have begun to slow the pace of policy tightening, markets are back to scouring their communications for evidence of what’s to come. So far... 8th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Why the plunge in credit spreads may be a head fake A recent plunge in credit spreads in the US is one clear sign of hope that the economy there is heading for a soft landing. It jars, however, with two developments that point to the slightly gloomier... 7th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The December trade data show a rebound in both real exports and imports but, with those gains following steep declines in previous months and the surveys pointing to renewed weakness to come, the data... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to a weak H1 The surge in interest rates and tightening in credit conditions last year resulted in a broad-based plunge in loan demand in the fourth quarter. Most banks expect to continue tightening standards this... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Robust US economic data spark a rebound in the greenback The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements... 3rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
