US Commercial Property Update Initial US real estate takeaways from the bank collapses The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, homebuilders... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week, but product stocks fell. That said, the bigger picture remains one of subdued domestic demand, which we expect to remain the case for some time yet. 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Will financial stability needs supplant inflation goal? The Fed has a very difficult policy decision to make at next week’s FOMC meeting – should it hold interest rates unchanged in the wake of the SVB collapse to shore up market confidence or, with core... 15th March 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.4% m/m fall in retail sales in February only partly reversed the 3.2% surge in January, suggesting that real consumption growth will accelerate to at least 3.5% annualised in the first quarter... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound in mortgage rates hits housing demand Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove... 14th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: What does banking sector turmoil mean for March central bank decisions? 1678978800 Starting with the ECB today, some major central bank decisions are due in the shadow of recent banking sector turmoil.
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.5% m/m rise in core consumer prices last month adds to the evidence that inflation remains stubbornly high, but the ongoing fallout from the SVB crisis over the coming days is still likely to... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What the SVB collapse means for the Fed Even if the collapse of several mid-tier banks doesn’t develop into a full-blown systemic crisis, it will more than likely trigger a credit crunch. That raises the risk that the economy will suffer a... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Market to Fed: must try harder Financial markets have a had a rough few days as the rapid collapse of three regional US banks has reawakened the ghosts of 2008. There are three key points to make. 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) Net commercial real estate lending ticked up in February following a slowdown the month prior. That said, monthly lending activity across all sectors remained below the average for 2022. With January... 13th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The SVB crisis – What are the risks from here? 1678712400 US authorities intervened on Sunday following the extraordinarily rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week.
