FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to see-saw on banking sector turmoil The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again)... 24th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily How the turmoil is playing out within the stock market We suspect some of the recent trends in the relative performance of equity market sectors will fade or even reverse, perhaps even if the current turmoil persists. 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Are small banks and CRE the next doom loop? Fears over small regional banks in the US have focused on the unrealised losses on debt securities and deposit insurance but, in what would have echoes of the savings and loan crisis, maybe we should... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bank shares aren’t bound to underperform in a credit crunch Needless to say, economic downturns are usually bad news for US banks’ share prices. But banks haven’t always underperformed the overall stock market in a recession – even when there has been a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Regional banks’ CRE exposure to weigh on lending US regional banks’ higher exposure to CRE debt means we expect their struggles to weigh heavily on credit availability for commercial real estate investors. Even without building in second round... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to... 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: What are the risks around commercial real estate? 1680015600 A degree of calm has returned to markets, but investors remain nervous about where the next blow-up could occur – and attention is increasingly focused on commercial real estate. But are the c
US Economics Update Fed plays for time with dovish hike The 25bp rate hike and new projections unveiled by the Fed today were towards the more dovish end of potential outcomes. Despite recent strong economic data, officials acknowledged the likely hit from... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
