US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt “risky” assets will continue to defy economic gravity We still think “risky” assets are set for a tough time as the US economy continues to slow. 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US stock market is not braced for a recession We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: March CPI and the Fed’s next steps 1681308000 Will underlying inflation prove to be stickier than we thought?
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Mar.) Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that... 5th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor Narrow money growth has turned negative as savers have shifted out of bank deposits and into money market funds and bonds, which now offer significantly higher returns. Bank loan growth remains robust... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a new cyclical low of 46.3 in March, from 47.7, indicates that the post zero-Covid recovery in manufacturing activity in China has not benefited US... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
