Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and (the end of?) the bond market sell-off The US Employment Report for July adds support to our view that long-dated Treasury yields will fall over the rest of this year. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation pressure dissipating The news that average hourly earnings growth increased by 0.4% m/m in July, and 4.4% over the past 12 months, might seem like a problem for the Fed. With productivity growth accelerating, however, it... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (July) Non-farm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in July and, while that represented a trivial improvement on the downwardly revised 185,000 gain the month before, those are otherwise the two weakest... 4th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: July CPI and the Fed policy outlook 1691676000 We think the Fed’s done with raising rates and won’t hike again at its September meeting – but much will depend on the next couple of inflation reports, including July’s.
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Seasonally-adjusted total employment growth rose by 0.6% 3m/3m on average across the 30 metros we track for the third consecutive month. But there has been clear weakness in the information sector in... 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted... 2nd August 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slower pace of labour market loosening Falling vacancies in sectors where wage growth has been particularly strong will provide some comfort to the Fed, however the JOLTS survey showed that the broader labour market remained resilient in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
