US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily One boat the rising tide of optimism is failing to lift While a rising tide of optimism has lifted most boats in the US stock market so far this year, real estate is the notable exception. That may change if, as we anticipate, the 10-year Treasury yield... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024) Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will rising Treasury yields keep equities down? The sharp rise in Treasury yields this week has probably contributed to the sell-off in US equities, but it isn’t the only factor. And even if Treasury yields remain high, we doubt that would prevent... 2nd April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Inflation pressure from labour market continues to fade The February JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions are now easing at a more gradual pace, but that isn’t a surprise when most indicators of slack have already returned to pre-pandemic norms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Shipping Disruption Dashboard: New Charts on Baltimore Click here to visit our Shipping Disruption Dashboard, which we have updated and extended to include analysis of the Baltimore port closure. 28th March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Q2 could be a good one for equities and bonds Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand still gradually easing We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from March This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in March, including the launches of our New Three Export Indices and our second annual Climate Economics Outlook. 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read