US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2024) The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Sep. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in September was entirely due to the disruption caused by the Boeing machinists’ strike and Hurricane Helene. Indeed, with these impacts excluded, industrial... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Residual seasonality something to note, not fear Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Flagging previous climate risk notes In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US. 14th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct. 2024) The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Sep) Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 1729670400 There’s less than a month to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 1729605600 There’s just two weeks to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.