US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices unlikely to capitalise on hybrid working IWG’s record revenues in the first half of this year may suggest that flexible offices are the answer for many firms as hybrid working cements itself as the ‘new normal’. However, we don’t think... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2023) Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No support from job growth for Chicago and NYC offices Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to easing wage growth Although the job openings rate rebounded sharply in August, we suspect that was more noise than a signal that the labour market is enjoying a resurgence. The rest of the JOLTS report presented a more... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Australian bonds could yet decouple from US Treasuries We think that the yields of Australian long-term sovereign bonds will fall by a bit less than those of US Treasuries over the next couple of years, even though they’ve moved in lockstep lately. But... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not see the new year The higher-for-longer narrative took hold over the third quarter, pushing bonds and equities down in most markets. But we doubt that this narrative will last. We expect bond markets to rebound as... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Stakes are higher than normal for 2024 election The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the expected head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the... 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
