US Commercial Property Update WeWork collapse adds to office concerns The bankruptcy of WeWork in the US was a predictable end to a long-running saga. Its effects on office markets will not be systemic, but they will reinforce existing weaknesses and pile more bad news... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Magnificent 7’ may keep outperforming for a while Given our pessimistic view of the economy in the US, we think that equities there will fare quite poorly in the near term. But the biggest components of the S&P 500 might hold up better. 8th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
US Economics Update Business investment to stagnate Business investment had so far been resilient to higher interest rates, but growth stalled in the third quarter and there are three reasons why we think that’s a sign of things to come. 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2023) After their weakest month in 28 years, there were signs that mortgage applications for home purchase bottomed out at the end of October. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped 9.1% m/m across... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily RBA/Fed divergence may not be enough to pry 10y yields apart Despite some differences in the monetary policy outlooks for Australia and the US, we doubt 10-year yields in the two economies will diverge much. 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Still plenty of scope for ‘supercore’ inflation to fall The recent stickiness of the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘supercore’ inflation mainly reflects temporary factors rather than ongoing tightness in the labour market. The upshot is that we still expect a... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions ease following post-SVB squeeze The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that, while they remain tight, credit conditions have eased a little since the run of regional bank failures earlier this year prompted the... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update A corollary to the Sahm rule With the unemployment rate rising, the Sahm rule will probably be triggered soon. That will prompt claims a recession has started but, since that rise is due to increased labour supply as much as it... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily High-yield credit spreads may rise again We think the risks to the “goldilocks” view now being discounted in markets are skewed towards a bigger slowdown in the US economy than is currently discounted, driving credit spreads up over the... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have... 3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read
