Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Another downgrade to the consensus, but still too sanguine Our forecasts for commercial real estate values remain well below consensus, even after the latest downgrade. While our sector rankings are consistent with the consensus, we are predicting a more... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and we expect a continued decline in inflation over the coming months... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US sovereign risk; markets vs Moody’s Moody’s decision to revise down its outlook for the US sovereign credit rating may add to the growing sense that market participants are becoming more worried about the fiscal outlook in the US. So... 13th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy disinflation; credit conditions still tight Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, crude oil prices have slumped. The upshot is that headline CPI inflation, which rebounded from a low of 3.1% in June to 3.7% in September, should be back... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Economic turbulence could still knock “risky” assets off course Even though we expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at a much higher level than it is now, we doubt it will build on its recent gains over the coming months given the outlook for the economy. 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook 1699974000 Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy
