Capital Daily Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long... 22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment performance to top consensus estimates Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the... 21st October 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The election and the dollar The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data hold up despite disruptions The data this week confirmed that retail sales rose strongly in September and industrial production suffered only modestly from hurricane and strike disruption, with our third-quarter GDP growth... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2024) The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Sep. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in September was entirely due to the disruption caused by the Boeing machinists’ strike and Hurricane Helene. Indeed, with these impacts excluded, industrial... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
