US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see falling PCE inflation weighing on Treasury yields January US PCE inflation is in line with our view that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will return to target by mid-year, allowing policymakers to cut rates further than investors seem to... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs? The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth to slow despite strong payrolls We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update North America electricity trade to grow Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What is behind the narrow equity rally? While enthusiasm over AI probably explains much of the “Magnificent Seven’s” outperformance in the US, the outperformance of the largest stocks in other markets is indicative of a broader shift in... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2023) Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly... 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1... 26th February 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Good mood in non-US equities may continue to build up While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
