Event Property Drop-In: US CRE Outlook – When’s the recovery? 19th March 2024, 3:00PM GMT US commercial real estate prices may have fallen 15% from their peaks – led by a 30% plunge in office values – but this isn’t over. High interest rates, slow growth and a tough lending environment...
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2024) The January trade data point to a potentially larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we had assumed, albeit mainly because imports look to have been stronger than previously believed. 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to continued easing in wage growth The January JOLTS release showed no evidence of a resurgence in labour demand. With forward looking indicators still pointing to a sharp easing in wage growth, there is little to suggest that the... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to stick to his previous script in his testimony to Congress today and, assuming we are right that the January strength in core inflation will prove to be a blip, his... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024) February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment activity unlikely to improve in 2024 Commercial real estate investment saw its worst year in over a decade last year. Most brokers seem to expect a recovery in investment activity this year as the Fed cuts interest rates and distressed... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook No end in sight to rising house prices Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in money supply not an inflation threat Money growth remains weak but is rebounding steadily, with our broader M3 measure recovering to its strongest since mid-2022. But there is no reason to expect this to drive a rebound in inflation. 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble doesn’t need rate cuts We don’t think Fed rate cuts are a necessary condition for the stock market bubble to inflate further. After all, most measures of equity risk premia have scope to fall as hype around AI grows. 4th March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record 1710257400 The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.
Capital Daily Are more widows in the making? Today’s rise in the 2-year Japanese government bond yield to its new highest level since 2011 raises the question of whether this is the start of a far bigger sell-off in the bond market, or just... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and Biden to take centre stage Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
