US Housing Market Update Southern house price outperformance to last The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024) The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing. 15th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb. 2024) In line with the rebound in retail sales, manufacturing output was boosted in February by the unwinding of the hit from the winter snowstorms that weighed on production in January. Even as that boost... 15th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the stock market It is no surprise that the confidence of US consumers is closely aligned to the health of the stock market these days. After all, the share of households that own equities is the highest in at least... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville, Jacksonville and Austin top for remote workers Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly... 13th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Better inflation data needed for June rate cut Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still... 13th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy... 12th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi... 12th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The second consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in February leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the “greater confidence” needed to begin cutting interest rates. The annual rate of core... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Revisiting the link between US labour and stock markets Today’s favourable reaction in financial markets to February’s US Employment Report probably reflects the inflation-friendly news of softer-than-expected growth in average hourly earnings amid mixed... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
