US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The second-quarter GDP data support the Fed’s more upbeat tone on economic conditions and suggests that the economy could cope with higher interest rates. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks fell last week by much more than expected. Oil production also took a sharp tumble as lower prices continue to take their toll. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High inventories & strong US dollar to wilt wheat prices The price of US wheat has been on a rollercoaster over the past two months. However, with high global stocks and a stronger US dollar, we think prices will trend down over the remainder of the year. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Looser credit conditions will support mortgage recovery Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China and US, not Iran, most important for oil prices Oversupply and the looming return of exports from Iran are undoubtedly weighing on oil prices. However, prices are likely to continue to be more influenced by sentiment towards commodities in general... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The sharp fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July, to 90.9 from 99.8 in June (revised down from 101.4), points to an easing in consumption growth in the second half of the... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller (Q2/May) Today’s housing market data suggest that the recent slowdown in house price growth may now be going into reverse. They also support our view that rental value growth could soon reach a 30-year high. 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June's durable goods data suggest that the rebound in investment in business and equipment in the second quarter was probably smaller than we expected. Nevertheless, this isn’t enough to prompt us to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy Once the US FOMC has begun to raise its target for the federal funds rate, it is widely expected that subsequent increases will be very gradual, as the rate is only slowly returned to a more “normal”... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy to diverge sharply by the end of 2016 The uneven pace of growth in the developed world is likely to lead to a sharper divergence in monetary policy than most anticipate by the end of 2016. US rates look set to increase further than... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US shale firms squeeze every last drop Sharp falls in the cost of drilling and fracking shale oil wells mean that some firms can now be profitable even when oil prices are extremely low. This should help to reduce the sharp declines in oil... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New home sales unexpectedly declined in June, and have struggled to make much progress since the start of the year. However, the recent growth in existing sales shows that housing demand is... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
