US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in industrial production in July was much higher than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, but it was primarily due to a massive surge in motor vehicle output. The latter... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The share of mortgage borrowers having trouble with repayments dropped again in the second quarter, thanks to low mortgage rates, rising house prices and a solid labour market. That progress should... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in July's retail sales, which matched the consensus forecast, was solid rather than spectacular. But upward revisions to sales in May and June mean that real consumption growth... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will events in China force the Fed to delay US rate lift-off? The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are US Treasuries to banks’ waning demand? One factor that purportedly prevented US government bond yields from rising in 2014 was banks’ increased appetite for Treasuries, which has waned this year. While other factors could continue to exert... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand continues to strengthen Total home sales increased to nearly 6m annualised in June. This was the fastest pace of sales since before the financial crisis and is a clear sign that the market is gradually normalising. Moreover... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed edging closer to first rate hike A September rate hike is looking more and more like a done deal, even though the incoming economic data have been decidedly mixed of late. 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell again last week as refinery runs surged and imports fell slightly. But production rebounded slightly and stocks of gasoline rose. 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The widening in the trade deficit to $43.8bn in June, from an upwardly revised $40.9bn in May, is more or less as the BEA assumed in its GDP estimate and therefore doesn’t point to a revision to the 2... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The upward trend in mortgage interest rates seems to be holding back mortgage applications. However, provided the labour market continues to strengthen as we expect, looser credit conditions and... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Obama and the EPA escalate the “war on coal” The rules set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency should ultimately serve to reduce demand for coal and put downward pressure on prices, even if there are lengthy legal challenges. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Although the CoreLogic measure of annual house price growth increased again in June, the underlying pace of gains has slowed since the start of the year. As a result, the index is finally falling back... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index suggests that the factory sector is continuing to suffer the effects of the dollar’s appreciation. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident, second-quarter rebound confirmed The Fed's more upbeat tone on economic conditions in the latest FOMC policy statement was a long way from it ringing the alarm bells on a September lift-off. Nevertheless, it still suggests that the... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
